Election Insights
Election Insights is a political analysis publication of the Business Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC).   BIPAC is an independent, bipartisan organization, that is supported by several hundred of the nation’s leading businesses and trade associations.

September 1, 2010
The Beginning of the End:  Last Week of August, Fried Brain
By Bernadette A. Budde
 
No primaries this week, but there are eight of them after Labor Day.  Your last chance to chill until we hit the final phase of the campaigns.  The 42 primaries held thus far tell us that nothing is predictable.  The pollsters have been wrong because they are clueless about the demographics of a sample.  Candidates are capable of closing fast because the voters pay attention until the end.  New issues are always dropping into the mix (mosque?).  Tactics aren't always visible, and television ads give the talking heads more to yammer about but don't always move the voters.  Favorability ratings are fluid, and voting intention isn't as polarized as the pundits would have us believe.  Signs point to Republican gains, but how many and where ... and why ... nobody knows for sure.  I still don't have a number and am sticking to my prediction that it either a normal year (about 20) or a really really really out of whack; just as easy for the Republicans to win 60 seats as it is 30, if they crack a barrier.  But, business isn't so far away from agenda control of the current House.  Remember, 20 Democrats bolted their party on both health care votes and on climate change.  Based on preliminary Prosperity Project voting records, there are 34 House Democrats and seven Senate Democrats who voted at least 40% of the time with business on Cornerstone issues.
 
It's hot, we're tired, and every week provides us with new 'awesome crazy' to factor into our projections, no matter how we do them or on what we base our conclusions.  Takes a lot to make our OMG list these days.
 
Forgive me for going over the edge, but two Lady Antebellum songs are playing in my head as I think about candidates out on the trail the next two months.  The first is 'I Run to You.'  I:  anyone seeking office; You:  PAC donors, grassroots issue activists, campaign volunteers, early voters.
 
I run from hate
I run from prejudice
I run from pessimists
But I run too late
I run my life
Or is it running me
Run from my past
I run too fast
Or too slow it seems
When lies become the truth
That's when I run to you

Chorus
This world keeps spinning faster
Into a new disaster so I run to you
I run to you baby
And when it all starts coming undone
Baby you're the only one I run to
I run to you

We run on fumes
Your life and mine
Like the sands of time
Slippin' right on through
And our love's the only truth
That's why I run to you
 
The other is 'Need You Now,' which reminds me of all the voters who tell pollsters they are fed up, off with all their heads, get rid of the incumbents, elect anybody else because we've dumped what's there.  But, as the election approaches and a local funding project or constituent need comes along, well, maybe that old flame isn't yesterday's news after all.  We are a fickle lot.
 
Picture perfect memories, scattered all around the floor.
Reaching for the phone cause, I can't fight it any more.
And I wonder if I ever cross your mind.
For me it happens all the time.
 
It's a quarter after one, I'm all alone and I need you now.
I said I wouldn't call but I lost all control and I need you now.
And I don't know how I can do without, I just need you now.
 
Another shot of whiskey, can't stop looking at the door.
Wishing you'd come sweeping in the way you did before.
And I wonder if I ever cross your mind.
For me it happens all the time.

It's a quarter after one, I'm a little drunk and I need you now.
I said I wouldn't call but I lost all control and I need you now.
And I don't know how I can do without, I just need you now.
 
Next week:  back to serious and sober.  Enjoy Labor Day.

August 25, 2010
North South East West:  Four More Primaries – Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Vermont
By Bernadette A. Budde

Far from a quiet August.  There have been 15 primaries between July 4 and Labor Day, making it a more newsworthy summer on the campaign trail than it has been in the legislative corridors of Washington, DC.  This week's round produced few surprises, accustomed as we are every week to a new regime of crazy, with our sense of the amazement set to a high level.  Just what would make us perk up these days?  Nobody beating somebody?  Not new.  A camp counselor beating big-spending candidates with legislative experience?  Done that.  The Republican presidential nominee having to slog his way out of a Senate primary?  Done that too.  A Republican governor becoming an independent rather than lose to an upstart in a Senate primary?  So last year.  A bald guy with tenuous connections to the state beats the attorney general in an open seat race for governor?  Sure, why not.  A Republican House primary where the big issue was a candidate's alleged use of a pseudonym to blog about the hot night life in ... wait for it ... Scottsdale?  Yes, that happened.  Did we say the candidate is the son of a former vice president?  Not making that up either. 

To decode the above: 
Fairbanks attorney Joe Miller held a steady lead throughout the night and with two-thirds of the vote counted was beating Senator Lisa Murkowski (R) by about 2200 votes.  He was unknown but he backers weren't.  If final tallies match the preliminary results, Murkowski will be the third senator denied renomination, and there will be at least 15 new faces in the 112th Senate.
In the Republican runoff in OK-5, James Lankford used his Christian camp connections to win 65% of the vote over Ken Calvey, former legislator and candidate of Club for Growth.  In the primary, Lankford placed ahead of the field that included influential legislators backed by Oklahoma City's business leaders.  Never underestimate young volunteers motivated by a person/cause – ask Hillary.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) was forced to campaign like any other vulnerable incumbent to woo various flanks within the Arizona Republican party.  Accused of flipping and emphasizing issues he would never touch, McCain beat former Representative J. D. Hayworth to win the primary for a fifth term.  Letterman's monologue last night called this the biggest comeback for a senior citizen since Brett Favre's return to the Vikings. 

Governor Charlie Crist (nee R, Ind) ducked out of the Florida Senate primary with Marco Rubio, who was so popular that over a million voters turned out to back him in a primary he was certain to win. 

Crist unintentionally set in motion what would have been an upset had we not already been conditioned for the unanticipated.  His departure as a one-term governor opened that post.  Republicans might have anticipated a primary given the concern that attorney general Bill McCollum was weak, after losing two statewide races.  Known figures were reluctant, acting as if McCollum was the anointed one, but health care mogul Rick Scott was undaunted.  Fresh off his big spending ads against Obama care, Scott didn't mind the heat, or the questions about his business reputation.  He ran an ad campaign funded by personal dollars.  Pundits will say it was a win for anti-Obamacare as a message, business executives as an occupation, tv as a tactic, and money as an ingredient, yet at the root of his so-called upset was doubt about McCollum.  He couldn't shake the image of a career pol aiming at a job he might have been able to secure two decades ago.  Anyone thought about House managers these days when Bill Clinton is the equivalent of Rambo brought in to rescue moribund Democratic campaigns. 

Of all the extraneous issues that find space in a year when it is the economy everywhere, nobody would expect alleged blogging under an assumed name about hot chicks in Scottsdale to enter the dialogue in a safe Republican seat.  Yes, the AZ-3 Republican primary was turned on its head when Ben Quayle, son of Dan, was supposedly unmasked as the writer of what passes for purple prose.

In other developments and what to expect in the remaining weeks before the general election:
 
Alaska

• Levi Johnston filed for mayor of Wasilla, and he was on Jimmy Kimmel last night, a repeat show but still a sign of the apocalypse. 
  
• Governor:  Sarah Palin's replacement, Governor Sean Parnell (R) held a steady lead all night with about 50% in a seven-person primary.  The nearest competitor was ex-Valdez mayor Bill Walker. 
  
• Senate:  No love lost between the Palin and Murkowski clan.  What started as a low-key thing became more intense as tea party activists followed the Palins (Todd and Sarah) into the campaign for Joe Miller, an attorney from Fairbanks, over incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski (R).  She is the daughter of the former governor Frank, who was beaten by and continues to be chastised by Palin.  An underlying problem for Lisa is the suspicion among the state's pro-life forces that she is pro-choice.  Before there was Sarah dividing Republicans in Alaska, there was the pro-life movement creating tension in Republican primaries.  A parental consent measure was on the primary ballot, and turnout for this issue hurt Murkowski.  With two-thirds counted, Murkowski was falling further behind and had 48% to Miller's 52%. With a reported 16,000 absentee ballots that won't to be counted until August 31, this  may not be decided until atleast the end of this month.

Arizona

• Governor:  Governor Jan Brewer (R) found a way to change the subject from sales taxes to immigration, and her political fortunes shifted.  Primary opponents, both potential and real, dropped aside and she emerged with almost 90% of the vote.  Attorney general Terry Goddard (D) joined this race when Brewer was the weak ascender to the throne in 2009, but he now looks like a decided underdog.
  
• Senate:  'Build the dang fence,' one of the more memorable slogans of the 2010 cycle.  That's what McCain uttered in an oft-running commercial, where he walked the border with a worried sheriff.  Tell me you predicted this would be his reelection theme two years ago when McCain was still to appear before the GOP convention to accept the party's nomination as a maverick.  Challenger J. D. Hayworth barely cracked 30% of the Republican primary vote when prominent conservatives, in Arizona and elsewhere, rallied to McCain, who then maneuvered to the right.  We're told McCain is so hip he tweets about Snookie.  You should be embarrassed to know who that is.
  
• House:  State legislators did poorly in Republican primaries in districts held by women Democrats, who would have to lose for the Republicans to win the 39 seats required to retake control of the House.  Must have been the shift in overall tone, but insurgent renegades were strong, hardly the profile one would expect to latch onto McCain's coattails.  In AZ-1, former majority leader Rusty Bowers ran fourth, with dentist/tea favorite Paul Gosar in first place in the Republican primary.  Representative Ann Kirkpatrick (D) had no primary opposition.  The border district AZ-8 had a contested Republican primary as well.  Former legislator/party favorite Jonathan Paton placed a weak second behind Iraq veteran/tea favorite Jesse Kelly who had a fast close and was near 50%.  Representative Gabrielle Giffords (D) won this Republican open seat in 2006.  In AZ-3, Quayle with 23% was five points ahead of anyone else in this ten-person Republican primary. 

Florida

• Governor:  The matchup between Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R) will feature conversations between two people who know how to read a balance sheet and will stress their business credentials.  Watch for independents to be confused and for traditional Republican donors to be split.  Sink will be able to expand her base beyond Democrats.  The Republican unity rally originally planned for Wednesday after the primary was postponed due to logistics – or so it was reported.  Not a great year for Republican regulars in Florida, and the disintegration of the McCollum campaign found lots of folks on the losing side putting their capital behind someone who was the wrong image for the year of change.
  
• Senate:  If his primary victory doesn't lift Representative Kendrick Meek (D-17) into the mid-20's right after Labor Day, he will have a hard time getting national support.  Crist has been the de facto Democratic nominee in the absence of a clear primary winner, but Meek performed better in dispatching a big spender than McCollum did.  Rubio's million-plus votes is a sign that he has magic, an ingredient not to be discounted in this climate.  Meek's rise would pull votes from Crist.
  
• House:  Representative Allen Boyd (D-2) won his primary with 51%, another indication that incumbents can survive trouble if they campaign to their strengths.  In FL 8, Republicans nominated Daniel Webster with 40%, a large margin over six other contenders.  The seat is held by freshman Representative Alan Grayson (D).  Webster is the type who isn't supposed to win this year:  longtime state legislator, close to party establishment, indecisive about making this race, challenged by more contemporary conservatives.  He was 17 points ahead of his nearest competitor.  Meek's open congressional seat was won by state senator Frederica Wilson with 34%, more than twice the support earned by her nearest competitor in a nine-person Democratic primary.  With 99% counted, state legislator/former sheriff Sandra Adams was 560 votes ahead of former Winter Park councilmember Karen Diebel, who in turn was 1,070 votes ahead of restaurant owner Craig Miller.  In the closing days, Miller attacked Diebel, but this was never a happy-go-lucky group of candidates.

Vermont

• Governor:  Four-term Republican James Douglas is not running again.  Republicans had only one candidate file, lt. governor Brian Dubie.  The five-way Democratic primary was close throughout the night.  Two state senators were within 121 votes of each other with 25% each in a field of five.  Peter Shumlin was first and Doug Racine was second in a lead that can shift with absentee ballots and review of tallies.  
   

August  18, 2010
W is for the Wildcard West:  Washington and Wyoming Primaries
By Bernadette A. Budde

Washington Senate
It may be a long election night November 2 if Republicans are on watch for the outcome of the Pacific coast. If Democratic women incumbents win Senate races in California and Washington, it is all but impossible for the minority party to hold the majority in the 112th Senate.

Washington is the wild card or ace in the hole as the eleventh seat in the lineup that party hopefuls think will lead to the net gain of ten to claim 51 seats in the senate.   It was the last entry on the roster, a viable possibility only after Dino Rossi, former legislator and real estate developer,  said he would run a few months ago.

Senator Patty Murray (D) is seeking her fourth term. The insurgent grassroots surprise of her day (1992), she captured public fascination with the year of the woman. The mom in tennis shoes proved a people based effort could topple the establishment, long before anyone imagined a community organizer would get to the White House.  As a side note, President Obama was in Washington for a Murray fundraiser on Tuesday

Washington's primary is conducted mostly by mail with a permanent class of absentee voters. It was the working woman subset of these voters who were the base for Democratic victories in the last decade. The state's system also has an open primary where candiates run against the field and the top two regardless of party meet in the general election.

The direction of the evening was settled within a few hours of the official close for the dropoff of ballots at polling stations. Murray was declared the top finisher with under 50 percent and Rossi placed second with more than a third of the vote.

Unlike the ambitious heady outsiders who flung themselves into contests more than a year ago, Rossi was cautious about his plans. He already lost two gubernatorial races in 2004 and 2008 to Governor Christine Gregoire (D). Nobody wants to be remembered as the political version of Bobby Riggs (younger ones - jgi). With the overall climate improving, Rossi listened to national operatives and announced, piecing together an organization with remnants from other contests.

State party regulars weren't so enthusiastic, weighing the public desire for a new face with Rossi's over exposure in losing twice.
It wasn't as if the state didn't already have Republican candidates. Sarah Palin endorsed Clint Didier, former NFL football player from the western part of the state. He was the Tea Party favorite. Before the end of the primary, Didier paired with businessman Paul Akers to stop Rossi. Didier had less than 10 percent in incomplete return.

Rossi has a chance only if the soccer moms, and now their grown children, abandon her after voting for Murray for three terms. The kids born in 1992 are now 18. Think about that!

Wyoming Governor
This is guaranteed - absent a fluke - to be a Republican pickup. Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) can't run again. Seven Republicans filed, including two from prominent families.  Colin Simpson, speaker of the legislature and son/grandson of former senators, was running fourth. Sarah Palin's candidate Rita Meyer was running third. Former US attorney Matt Mead, whose family has held office for years, was running neck and neck with former legislator Ron Micheli. Around midnight, Mead was on top with 29% of the vote (30,272) followed closely by Meyer with 28% (29,558) and Micheli in third with 26% (15,416) of the vote. 

August 11, 2010
More August Primaries:  Kinda Sorta Against the Grain
By Bernadette A. Budde

Pundits:  go back to your puzzling pondering, maybe you don't have 2010 figured out after all.  Sarah and her Grizzlies?  Not so much.  Anti-the big spenders?  Not really.  The rebels are in charge?  Not always.  Settle in, there are still 17 primaries to go.  The voters will tell us what the issues are that matter, and which candidates have the best storyline to address them.  We just have to be patient until election night.  Speaking of which, the NBA schedule came out yesterday.  Washington Wizards open against the Philadelphia 76ers (matching draft pick one and draft pick two) on Election Night.  Just proves the point:  yours is never the only game in town.

Colorado:  Boots on the ground 

Senate:
Appointed Senator Michael Bennet (D) was nominated in his first race with 54%, an early evening declared winner.  He beat former state legislative leader Andrew Romanoff.  The press enjoyed making this a Clinton-Obama matchup, with the former president backing Romanoff and the current president, who was nominated in Denver, supporting Bennet.  In an unusual spin, Romanoff with the political resume suggested he was the outsider against Bennet who had never been elected to anything.  The Republican primary confirmed the earlier state convention rejection of Washington favorite Jane Norton, the former lt. governor, by selecting county prosecutor Ken Buck who was a successful grassroots contender throughout the spring caucus process.  Norton had Sarah Palin come to her defense, even though Buck was considered more in line with the tea party conservative activists.  Attempts to 'genderize' this contest failed.  I never understood the Norton slogan on campaign signs 'the buck stops here' because that sounded favorable to her opponent.  The sign was adorned with a high heel which was supposed to signify Buck's insensitivity.  Buck said he didn't wear heels, he wore boots with Weld County b.s. on them, not DC b.s.  It's that kind of year where earthy authenticity trumps consultant's cleverness.

Governor: 
Democrats had little controversy in fielding a replacement for retiring one-term Governor Bill Ritter (D).  Denver mayor/former restaurant owner John Hickenlooper was chosen at a convention and had no primary.  The Republican contest went from bad to worse, after little known Dan Maes surprised establishment choice Scott McInnis at the convention.  Maes had first line on the ballot following his convention win, relegating the former House member McInnis to second spot.  Clearly, that candidacy was in trouble long before revelations of plagiarism or other stumbles.  Maes held a steady but slim lead throughout the night's ballot counts.  The wild card in this contest is the independent candidacy of former Representative Tom Tancredo.  He dropped his Republican label and jumped into this race when neither Maes nor McInnis obeyed his order for them to abandon the contest.  Best known as an anti-immigration crusader, Tancredo's issue is back in vogue because of the Arizona state law/suits.  The primary, no matter how resolved, won't be the end of the maneuvering.  According to state press reports, the situation has become so bizarre that Republican so-called leaders were plotting to get the eventual primary winner to drop out, allowing the state party to declare a vacancy and select a replacement candidate 

Connecticut:  Money on the air

Senate: 
In a move similar to the free-for-alls of WWE matches, the out-of-the-ring Rob Simmons semi-jumped back into this contest despite announcing he suspended his Republican Senate bid after a poor showing in the convention.  It was only a half-hearted re-entry, and it got him nowhere near Linda McMahon, cofounder and former CEO of WWE, which happens to be a Connecticut employer.  McMahon never dodged the bad headlines associated with her business/entertainment venture.  Instead, she embraced the image, telling voters what goes on in the ring is fake, but what happens in Washington is real.  McMahon won the Republican primary with 49%, to 28% for former Representative Simmons, the national party's recruit for this contest.  McMahon is said to have spent $20 million in this contest, proudly self-funding instead of taking contributions from interest groups.  Democrats selected attorney general Richard Blumenthal at a convention.  The seat is held by Senator Chris Dodd (D), who is retiring after five terms.

Governor:
Democrats think they will pick up this governorship now that popular Governor Jodi Rell (R) is retiring.  Stamford mayor Dan Malloy won the Democratic primary with 58% over Ned Lamont, the one-time netroots favorite for the Senate in 2006.  Malloy has prepped for this office for years, but the perennial wannabe status didn't affect his approval in this contest.  He had more total votes than the top two Republican finishers combined.  Former Bush-era ambassador Tom Foley, a controversial business investor, won the Republican nomination with 43% over Lt. Governor Michael Fedele who had 38%.  Foley was a generous donor to fund his tv ad campaign following his first place score at the state convention. 

Georgia Runoff:  Out of the shadows 

Governor:
Counted out and buried following the July 20 primary, former Representative Nathan Deal (R) surged from his 23% in the primary to 50% in the runoff.  Secretary of state Karen Handel had 34% in the primary and all the proverbial buzz in her supposed come-from-nowhere first place finish.  After the primary, Sarah Palin added to her endorsement by making personal appearances for Handel.  Deal rallied social conservatives, questioning Handel's commitment to pro-life issues and suggesting she supported workplace benefits for gay couples.  Sniping at Deal about his Washington connections and alleging family business favoritism, Handel's team slipped rather than surged.  This runs counter to the theme elsewhere this cycle where establishment entitlements are harmful.  After midnight with all votes counted but not official, Deal held about a 1500 vote lead on Handel.

Minnesota:  Rain on parades 

Governor:
Bad weather in Twin Cities and heat elsewhere may have kept turnout down, but Democrats had the lively romp expected when the candidates ignored efforts to unify behind the convention endorsed candidate.  Throughout the night, the endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher, speaker of the state legislature, had a narrow lead over former Senator Mark Dayton and two others.  Women win, formers lose?  But as vote totals climbed over 90% counted, Kelliher fell behind Dayton, who was growing a lead to more than 3800 votes.  Dayton's win, if his lead holds, may revive talk about tax-the-rich as a viable political message.  Republicans chose the endorsed candidate Tom Emmer, a state representative who has tried to blend social conservatism with an economic development message.  Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) is not running again ... at least not for this office.

August 4, 2010
First Round of August Primaries:  Summer Blockbusters
By Bernadette A. Budde

Didn't see the dream movie that's leading the box office returns, but caught the Angelina Jolie action flick set in DC – Salt.  Surprise ending.  Is she or isn't she the sleeper Russian spy?  Great fight scenes too, lots of people getting killed by her clever toughness, creative use of spider venom and extra long chain on her handcuffs.  Good guys, bad guys, all look about the same, and way too much plot.  Makes me feel like trying to figure out these primaries, which are getting murkier with more red herrings than the ones we endured in the spring.  Thought you knew how the scene would wrap, don't tune out before this is over.  Another set of primaries, another set of surprise endings.

Kansas

Governor:  Appointed Governor Mark Parkinson (D) not running again

• Democrats had only one candidate file, state senator Tom Holland.
• Senator Sam Brownback (R) has been the frontrunner for this seat since then-Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D) joined the Obama Cabinet.  Although the state party still has divisions, he's come as close as anyone to the unifying hero

Senate:  Senator Sam Brownback (R) running for governor

• Democrats are given no chance to be competitive in the general, yet there were five candidates who filed for the primary.  College professor Lisa Johnston was nominated with 31%.
• Two Republican House members fought the epic battle down to the wire.  After midnight, Representative Jerry Moran (R-1) held his lead, 49% to 45%, over Representative Todd Tiahrt (R-4) with 90% counted and about 11,000 votes separating them.  Moran had the state farm bureau endorsement along with several of his Senate colleagues, including some who normally picked the more conservative contenders in other contests.  Sarah Palin endorsed Tiahrt, as did Karl Rove.  In the parlance of this cycle, Tiahrt was the one who should have earned the insurgent label, but Moran was adaptive to the script required to win intra-party contests in 2010.  His supporters pointed out throughout the campaign that his expansive rural district was the key to victory, and Wichita-based Tiahrt would not capture this territory, no matter who was for him

House:  Three open seats

• KS-1:  Representative Jerry Moran (R-1) pushed turnout here for his Senate campaign, and the ensemble cast of Republicans in this safe seat landed all over the lot.  State senator Tim Huelskamp finished double digits ahead of the rest of the field, taking about 36%.  He aligned his campaign with the conservative evangelical wing of the party, and he had the backing of Ron Paul, but geography also played a part.  All of his legislative seat is inside this district.  State senator/physician Jim Barnett, who spent close to a million dollars, and real estate broker Tracey Mann were next in line. 
• KS-3:  Representative Dennis Moore (D) isn't running again, but his wife Stephanie is stepping in to take this role.  Mrs. Miller is a nurse and has made health care part of her platform.  Republicans had nine candidates, with state representative Kevin Yoder emerging from the list.  He had about 45% of the vote, with former legislator Patricia Lightner coming in second with 37%.  Yoder is considered a moderate who appeals to the Johnson County suburbanites who often crossed party lines to vote for Moore.  Lightner is the grassroots conservative.
• KS-4:  Drama, fireworks, adversaries hurling insults at each other --- that was the Republican primary to replace Representative Todd Tiahrt (R).  Businessman/RNC member Mike Pompeo won the nomination by stumbling over the finish line in this horror show.  No bromance here.  His fight with businessman Wink Hartman gave an opening to state senator Jean Kurtis Schodorf, but she had a photo finish with Hartman yet couldn't catch Pompeo.  Democrats think they have a chance to win this district, especially with Tiahrt out of the picture and the Republican catfight so brutal.  State legislator Raj Goyle, son of Indian-American physician parents, has proven himself in two local races.  

Michigan

Governor:  Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) not running again

• Democrats nominated Lansing mayor Virg Bernero, a former state legislator who had labor support.  He had almost 60% against state house speaker Andy Dillon.  Neither was expected to run when the race began, but Granholm's ratings sank with the state's economy, forcing her lt. governor to opt out of replacing her.
• Republicans nominated Rick Snyder, a newcomer who ended up being the scene stealer in the field of stars.  Snyder was a late entrant, spending large sums of personal money to tout job creation.  An Ann Arbor businessman and venture capitalist, he aimed his message at the mainstream non-ideologues, looking for crossovers and independents.  He had under 40%, but finished about ten points ahead of Representative Peter Hoekstra (R-MI 2) and attorney general Mike Cox.  Cox had the establishment organized business support and the state's grassroots right to life operatives yet finished third. 

House:  Three open seats, incumbents under seige

• MI-1:  After midnight with 99% counted, there was no official call on the Republican primary in the seat vacated by Representative Bart Stupak (D).  Surgeon Dan Benishek was 102 votes ahead of state senator Jason Allen.  Benishek was an early critic of the health care plan which Stupak ultimately backed.  State representative Gary McDowell was the only Democrat to stay in the primary.  A pro-choice anti-Stupak Democrat dropped out, taking a swat at what she said was a party determined to pick a pro-life vote (McDowell).
• MI-2:  After midnight with 97% counted, the Republican primary to replace Representative Peter Hoekstra (R) was also unofficial.  Former state legislator Bill Huizenga was ahead of former NFL player/social conservative-backed Jay Riemersma by 880 votes with 97% counted.  This seven-person primary resembled a courtroom drama, with candidates threatening to sue each other over whatever they bickered over as the contest entered the final chapter.  Riemersma wasn't that far ahead of state senator Wayne Kuipers, but third place can't climb into first. 
• MI-3:  The seat vacated by Representative Vern Ehlers (R) was another of the complicated primaries for Republican viewers.  State representative Justin Amash, endorsed by Ron Paul and the Club for Growth, won with 40%.  Ehlers endorsed Steve Heacock, a former county board chair, had 26%, followed closely by a state senator.
• MI-7:  One of a handful of sequels, this rematch was set when defeated 2008/former Representative Tim Walberg took 58%.  Freshman Mark Schauer (D) is considered vulnerable.
• MI-9:  Freshman Representative Gary Peters (D) beat a veteran Republican incumbent in 2008.  This time he faces Rocky, a military officer/former legislator/former U. S. Senate nominee, who was endorsed by Sarah Palin.  He had 42%, comfortably ahead of the three others, including the former incumbent's chief of staff.
• MI-13:  Representative Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) suffered for the sins of her son, the ousted Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.  She lost to state senator Hansen Clarke, a long-time Detroit political figure.  Clarke had 47%, Kilpatrick 41%.   She sits on Appropriations.  

Missouri

Senate:  Senator Kit Bond (R) not running again

• No suspense here, Representative Roy Blunt (R-7) won the 11-way primary with 71%.  The build up about the tea party opponent, state senator Chuck Purgason, was just a distraction.  He had only 13%. 
• There was also no surprise in the Democratic primary.  Secretary of state Robin Carnahan won with 84%. 
• Big box office on GOP side; Blunt had over 400,000 votes, with Carnahan's totals about 150,000 less.

House:  Cast of characters

• MO-4:  Representative Ike Skelton (D-4) will face Vicky Hartzler, a former state legislator who is best known as a defender of traditional marriage.  The fervor of her grassroots social activists put her in first place with 40% in a ten-person Republican primary.  State senator Bill Stouffer, who was a more mainstream party choice, finished second with 30%.  Everyone else faded into the backdrop.
• MO-7:  The seat vacated by Senate hopeful Blunt attracted nine Republicans to a safe seat once the primary was settled.  The candidate with the most 'character appeal' finished first, auctioneer/radio personality Billy Long who had 37%.  State senator Jack Goodman, labeled the establishment candidate, was second with 29%.  Everyone else was an afterthought.
• MO-8:  Republicans aren't supposed to be in trouble, but Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R) was held to 66% in a two-way primary.  Her Democratic opponent has approached the million dollar mark and turned heads for his 'boots on the ground' military precision operation.  Tommy Sowers is an Army veteran who did two tours in Iraq.

June 28, 2010
Oklahoma Primary:  Many a New Day        
By Bernadette A. Budde  

Another primary week, another Republican woman beats men to finish in first place in a gubernatorial primary.  Representative Mary Fallin (R-OK, 5), a former lt. governor, won the nomination without a runoff.  She was the consensus frontrunner among party regulars from the start of this race, which in effect began when she won a competitive congressional primary in 2006.  An exceptional fundraiser and a tactician managing a grassroots enterprise, Fallin nonetheless had to take on some elements of the tea party which favored state senator Randy Brogdon who had under 40%.  Due to the House vote on war funding on Tuesday, Fallin left the state early in the morning before the polls opened and was unable to vote for herself.  In the land of the rancher and the cowboy, a woman prevails.  Nikki, Karen, Susanna ... meet Mary.

In another sign of the wind blowing down the plains, on the Democratic side, Lt. Governor Jari Askins appears to have won the nomination to make this a sweep by women for the gubernatorial contest.  Governor Brad Henry (D) can't run again.  Askins was rated an underdog in the two-way Democratic primary, with polling suggesting the nominee would be Attorney General Drew Edmondson.  From a prominent political family and in his office for more than a decade, Edmondson represented the establishment in this contest, while Askins stressed her patient trek across the state to meet voters.  With almost all ballots counted but with provisional ballots still to be reviewed, Askins had a lead of about 2,500 votes.

Tell me when the election cycle started you predicted that New Mexico and Oklahoma would be guaranteed to have a woman governor.

Representative Dan Boren (D-OK, 2) took 75% of the vote against state legislator Jim Wilson.  Boren is one of 20 House Democrats who voted against health care twice and climate change, in opposition to his caucus.  Another of the legacy names in Oklahoma politics, Boren's engaging style accompanied by his voting record will make him hard to beat, even in a year when Republicans have an all or nothing attitude about the seats they can capture.  Republicans are headed to an August 24 runoff between Charles Thompson and Daniel Edmonds.

Fallin's open House seat presented an out of my dreams opportunity for young people who grew up attending a popular church-related summer camp in Oklahoma City.  Similar to the Obama phenomenon in 2008, camp operator James Lankford enlisted armies of relative outsiders whose natural connections made traditional outreach unnecessary.  Former state legislator/Club for Growth choice Kevin Calvey had big money/big TV, and it earned him the pundit favorite label.  Calvey also ran in the 2006 open seat where Fallin won.  With all votes counted, Lankford the supposed unknown wildcard was in first place with 33.5% and Calvey was in second with 32.4%.  Local energy/construction interests were with state legislator Mike Thompson was a distant third with 17.9%.  His money and endorsements cast him as the most mainstream of the Republican contenders, not exactly an edge in this year's primary, where Lankford's supporters shared a passion for their crusade.  For them, this is a beautiful morning, headed to the August 24 runoff.

Next week:  everything's up to date in Kansas City.

July 21, 2010
Georgia Primary:  We'll Think About That Tomorrow
By Bernadette A. Budde 

Runoffs are the storyline coming out of the Georgia primary.  Republican voters will head back to the polls on August 10 in several contests, including the high-profile gubernatorial contest.

The land of Scarlett O'Hara put a woman in first place in the Republican primary for governor.  Move over South Carolina, there's a new woman in the headlines.  Secretary of state Karen Handel (R) finished with just over a third of the vote in a seven-person Republican gubernatorial primary.  Former (resigned) Representative Nathan Deal (R-9) was second with about 23%.  Handel accumulated her margin with victories in most counties, especially in the Atlanta suburbs.  Her political base is in Fulton County where she was chair of the local chamber of commerce.  Deal was hurt by his congressional ties and his less extensive geographic base.  Insurance commissioner John Oxendine, once thought to be a leading contender if Deal faltered, finished fourth.  Handel also had the blessing of outgoing Governor Sonny Perdue (R), and her campaign team had Georgia/Perdue/Handel connections going into the primary.  The late endorsement from Sarah Palin was touted as a boost to the campaign, but there was evidence months ago that Handel was the candidate with momentum.  On the Democratic side, former Governor Roy Barnes, defeated by Perdue four years ago, won his seven-way primary with almost two-thirds of the vote.  Incomplete returns had his total vote tally ahead of Handel, but with substantially more votes cast in the Republican contest.

The seat vacated by Representative John Linder (R-7) is also destined for a runoff on August 10.  Linder's chief of staff Rob Woodall was in first place with most of the votes counted, receiving about 36%.  Jody Hice placed second with about 27%.  There were eight candidates in the primary.

Deal's former seat in GA-9 was filled in a special election a few weeks ago.  The primary paralleled that contest, with now-Representative Tom Graves, a former state representative, taking first place with a strong finish.  He will again face Lee Hawkins, a state senator and dentist.  Graves had just under 50%, Hawkins had about 27%.

Democratic incumbents who were challenged in their primaries avoided trouble.  Representative Hank Johnson (D-4) had 55% against two other candidates.  Representative John Barrow (D-12) had 60% in a rematch with a 2008 challenger who expected to mobilize African-American voters.  Representative David Scott (D-13) had more that 75% in his contest.

Next week:  Oklahoma.  Smart money says another Republican woman leads the ticket for governor, and expect a runoff in her open House seat.  Wednesday mornings, primary results, you'll never be hungry again.

July 14, 2010
2010 House Elections: Great Year for Nobody, But Where?
By Bernadette A. Budde

July 7, 2010
Passing the House Torch:  The 111th Changes and 112th Preview
By Bernadette A. Budde  

The 112th House will be a different body, with an altered power structure, major committee adjustments, and powerful familiar faces no longer present.  We know this to be true, regardless of the final numerical breakdown between Republicans and Democrats, because of the current incumbents who won't be in the 112th Congress.  Significant realignments can be anticipated, with consequences for business grassroots programs aimed at making connections with relevant legislators who oversee our cornerstone, workplace issues.

The current breakdown in the House:

• 255 Democrats, one Democratic vacancy
• 178 Republicans, one Republican vacancy
• Both vacancies are the result of resignations.  Neither seat will be filled until the November general election.

Here is a quick recap of what has already happened in the 111th House:

• There have been nine special elections in seven states.  California and New York have added two members to their delegations through special elections.
• Four of the special elections resulted from appointments of incumbents, including one Republican, to the Obama Administration.  Democrats won all four of these seats.
• Representative John Murtha (D, PA-12) was the only member to die during this session.  An institutional legend and wily insider, Murtha was the Defense Subcommittee chair of Appropriations, and the second in seniority on the whole committee.
• Republicans won two of the nine special elections.  Both seats were held by incumbents who resigned to devote their time to upcoming gubernatorial primaries in Georgia and Hawaii.  The Hawaii contest was a contentious three-way race with two Democrats, refusing to defer to each other in the quest to replace the outgoing Democrat.  Georgia was a safe Republican seat, where the winner won in a runoff that followed a divided primary.
• The Ways and Means Committee has had three chairs:  Representative Charlie Rangel (D, NY-15) stepped aside while under ethics investigations.  Representative Fortney Stark (D, CA-13) moved up temporarily.  He was soon replaced by Representative Sander Levin (D, MI-12) as interim chair.  Michigan has both the head and the ranking member of Ways and Means.  Representative Dave Camp (R, MI-4) is the top Republican on the panel.
• Ranking members on Armed Services and well as Education and Labor were replaced during the 111th Congress.
• The only member to switch parties is Representative Parker Griffith (R, AL-5), elected as a Democrat in 2008.  He was denied renomination in the primary.  Upon joining the Republicans, he was given a slot on Energy and Commerce.  Representative Greg Walden (R, OR-2) stepped aside to give Griffith this assignment.

Open seats for 2010:

• Not seeking reelection to House:  19 D, 23 R.  Despite popular conjecture, there are more Republicans leaving the House than there are Democrats.  The number of open seats is roughly ten percent of the House.  
• Retiring:  11 D, 7 R.  These are the members who are not seeking another office, who could have been on the ballot but decided not to run again.  All of them are quite senior in length of service.  Only one was first elected this century.
• Running for other office, who haven't resigned:  5 D, 12 R.  There are as many seeking other office as there are retiring from public life.  Two House members, one from each party, have been trounced in gubernatorial primaries.  The other three gubernatorial hopefuls are Republicans with upcoming primaries.  Ten of the 11 running for the Senate will be on the general election ballot.  Two are running for other state/local office.
• Three House members have lost primaries, two Republicans from the South and one senior Democrat from West Virginia.
• The remaining three not running again are special cases.  A Florida Republican is leaving his district to run in another seat, vacated by his brother.  It's been that kind of year – hard to follow the script.  Two members have resigned who won't be replaced before November.

Consequences of open seats:

• At least 24 of 50 states will have a freshman member.  Florida has five open seats, the state with the greatest disruption.  It will also have a new governor, all elected statewide offices, and a new senator.  The following states will have three open seats to fill:  Arkansas, Indiana (plus a new senator), Kansas (also a new governor and senator), Michigan (plus a new governor), South Carolina (plus a new governor), Tennessee (plus a new governor).
• Two committees will have new chairs even if Democrats retain control.  The chairs of Appropriations as well as Science and Technology are not running again.
• In addition to the chair, there are four other Democrats and three Republicans not returning to Appropriations.  
• After shifting around the chair in the 111th, the Ways and Means Committee will undergo more shuffling in the 112th Congress.  Three Democrats and two Republicans, allies with business on tax or trade measures, are leaving.
• The Energy and Commerce Committee has the most alterations on the horizon.  Three Democrats and six Republicans are not running again, almost all of them partners with business on key issues.  In addition, the Republican ranking member is all but certain to be replaced by another member of this panel.  
• Republicans will undergo major adjustments on Education and Labor, where four of the more senior members are leaving.  There are five Republicans scattered throughout the roster who are departing Transportation and Infrastructure.  Although not considered mainline committees, both panels have jurisdiction over business issues driving grassroots interest.  Card check and other union measures, as well as employee benefit legislation, is handled in Education and Labor.  This committee changed ranking members in the 111th Congress.  Transportation is more than highways or other forms of transit.  This committee oversees energy-related items such as the Coast Guard (Gulf oil spill)  and pipelines.  It also has responsibilities for hazardous materials and water projects.

June 30, 2010
Passing the Senate Torch:  The 111th Changes and 112th Preview
By Bernadette A. Budde 

The death of Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) has been reported as the end of an era.  Pundits agree there will never be another elected official to serve with so many presidents, winning nine terms in the Senate, preceded by stints in both bodies of the state legislature as well as three terms in the U. S. House.  He won his first election in 1946.  He won his first term in the Senate in 1958.  A former member of the Klan, he lived long enough to attend the inauguration of the first African-American president, a man he endorsed in the primaries. 

Byrd is not the only giant to die or depart this Senate.  Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) passed away last summer.  In all, there have been seven new faces joining the 111th Senate, replacing those who were there in December 2008.  As a reminder, here is the roster:

• Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) resigned to become President; he was replaced by appointed Senator Roland Burris (D) who decided not to run in 2010.
• Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) resigned to become Vice President; he was replaced by appointed Senator Ted Kaufman (D) who decided not to run in 2010.
• Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) resigned to become Secretary of State; she was replaced by appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) who is running for the remainder of the term.
• Senator Ken Salazar (D-CO) resigned to become Secretary of the Interior; he was replaced by appointed Senator Michael Bennet (D) who is running in 2010 but has a primary for his party's nomination.
• Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL) resigned; he was replaced by appointed Senator George LeMieux (R) who decided not to run in 2010.

Another ten senators on the ballot in 2010 decided not to run again or were denied nomination.  The primary season isn't over, with a possibility that more defeats are possible before the general election.

• Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN), a former governor and son of a former senator, isn't seeking a third term.
• Senator Bob Bennett (R -UT) failed to make the convention cut for a fourth term.  Bennett's father once served in the Senate.
• Senator Kit Bond (R-MO), a former governor, isn't running for a fifth term.
• Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS) is running for governor rather than a third full term for Senate.
• Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY), who retired from professional baseball in 1971 after playing for more than two decades, isn't seeking a third term.
• Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), whose father served before him, isn't running for a sixth term.
• Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) won't be on the ballot for a fourth term.
• Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH) began elective office in 1978, served two terms as governor, and is retiring after three terms.
• Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA), a former Republican, lost his first primary bid as a Democrat and can't compete for a sixth term.
• Senator George Voinovich (R-OH) won a term in the state house in 1966, elected twice to governor in the 1990's, and isn't running for a third term.

The departure of these individuals has or will reconfigure key committees, and in turn alter grassroots contact programs.  The committees most affected:

• Kennedy's death resulted in the selection of Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) as chair of Health, Education, Labor, Pensions.
• Harkin's decision to accept the HELP spot opened the chairmanship of Agriculture.  Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) was chosen to lead this panel.  Her new post helped her win the Democratic primary/runoff in 2010.
• Dodd is the chair of Banking, and financial services regulations and the health of credit markets are issues related to economic recovery.
• Both Kennedy and Byrd served on Armed Services, with a nation engaged in two wars but winding down both.
• A legendary appropriator, Byrd and other departures reshape the Appropriations Committee at a time when earmarks and overall government spending are issues.  This committee also loses Dorgan, Specter, Bond, Gregg, Bennett, Brownback, Voinovich. 

The upheavals of the 2006 and 2008 elections have already made the Senate a place with junior members, despite the focus on the senior veterans.  This Senate has a third of its members serving in their first term, and the 112th Senate is guaranteed to have at least a third of its members from the class of 2006, 2008,or 2010.  If Republicans expect to gain four/five seats, that caucus will have at least a dozen members from the class of 2010.  When the election is over, at least seven states are guaranteed to have both senators in their first term, including traditional manufacturing Midwestern states.  Of the list, only Missouri voted for McCain.  The other 'new' states provided 77 electoral college votes for Obama.  The states with the least senior senators will be:

• Colorado
• Minnesota
• Missouri
• New Hampshire
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Virginia

June 15, 2010
Political Punditry:  Vuvuzelas or Insights?
By Bernadette A. Budde 

If you haven't been following World Cup soccer from South Africa , you've never heard of vuvuzelas.  If you follow the games, that's all you hear – literally. They are the stadium horns, the traditional, native instruments that make a frightful noise, drowning out the normal sounds of a match.  Are we getting the political equivalent of vuvuzelas, or are we getting predictive comments from those who have told us what we're seeing on the field?
 
I've not picked a number of win/lose for either party in either body for the 2010 election, and the last 25 primaries only underscore my wariness of the supposed evidence, much of it contradictory.  Here are some consensus observations, containing equal untruths within them: 

It's said to be the year where incumbents are in serious trouble.  Really?

• Polls consistently show an electorate willing to see incumbents ousted, including their own.
• The same polls suggest a fluid electorate.  A recent ABC/Washington Post survey said 90% of respondents had made a choice for Congress, but almost 60% said they could change their minds before November.  I don't believe the first number, 90% don't even know who is running.  I believe that voters are persuadable, but the messages and messengers have to be credible. 
• In 25 primaries, only one governor, two senators, and two House members were denied renomination.  The governor had a sex scandal, both senators were senior citizens, one of the senators switched parties, the other senator abandoned a term limit pledge – six years ago, one House member had switched parties, the other was under an ethics cloud – losing to a state legislator.  Three of the five incumbents defeated are Republicans.
• One House member has been forced into a runoff.  He is a Republican, and this isn't his first cycle with primary trouble.
• The highest profile anti-incumbent contest was the Democratic Senate primary and then runoff in Arkansas.  Senator Blanche Lincoln survived, despite millions in labor money blasted at her.  
• There are upcoming Republican incumbent primaries for governor in Alaska and Arizona, but both of the current officeholders are appointees.  The upcoming Democratic incumbent primary for Senate in Colorado also involves an appointee/incumbent. 
• House members leaving to run for other office haven't been rejected across the board.  Alabama:  Representative Artur Davis (D-7) annihilated in the primary.  Arkansas:  Representative John Boozman (R-3) won without a runoff.  Illinois:  Representative Mark Kirk (R-10) won with just under 60%.  Pennsylvania:  Representative Joe Sestak (D-7) beat Senator Arlen Specter (D).  South Carolina:  Representative Gresham Barrett (R-3) finished a weak second and faces a runoff. 
  Former Republican House member Richard Pombo finished third in an open seat primary, but he entered the race in a district far from the one he represented. 
• Current or former House members are involved in primaries for Republican nominations in eight gubernatorial and three Senate contests in the coming months. 
• Democrats are counting on current/formers to win in five Senate and two gubernatorial races. 
• At least five former Republican House members are trying to reclaim their seats.
• Figuring out the anti-incumbent factor is critical to Republican fortunes.  Mathematically, the party can win a net of no more than six Senate and 19 House seats simply by capturing open seats.  Control of the House requires a minimum of 20 Democratic incumbents to be defeated.  Control of the Senate requires a minimum of four Democratic incumbents to be defeated.   

It's said to be the year of the outsider candidate.  How true is this? Insurgents and nonestablishment candidates have been winning contested primaries, but these victors, often in contentious primaries, aren't exactly outsiders.

• Rand Paul, Republican Kentucky Senate... son of a House member, worked on his father's presidential races, founded anti-tax group in state more than a decade ago, medical professional.
• Sharron Angle, Republican Nevada Senate... former state legislator, former congressional candidate, known anti-tax advocate, principle in ballot initiative campaigns.
• Marco Rubio, Republican Florida Senate... former speaker of the state legislature, protégé of Jeb Bush.
• Terry Branstad, Republican Iowa Governor ... former governor who served 16 years.
• Nikki Haley, Republican South Carolina Governor ... businesswoman, state legislator, endorsed by outgoing first lady, advocate of recorded votes in the state legislature.
• Brian Sandoval, Republican Nevada Governor ... former state legislator, former judge.
• Lee Fisher, Democrat Ohio Senate ... lt governor.
• John Kitzhaber, Democrat Oregon Governor ... former governor.

It's said to be the year of the woman candidate.  Is this as big a deal as it sounds?

• If women are more than half of the population and more than half of the voters, what's the big deal that four states without a woman senator might elect one? Four women Republicans serve in the Senate with 13 Democratic women, less than one-fifth of the body. 
• Irony:  Sarah Palin is opposing Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) in the primary.  The ranking member on the Energy Committee, Murkowski is the only woman Republican Senate incumbent on the ballot this cycle. 
• Women in primaries thus far:  Democrat Lincoln won in AR, but nonincumbent women lost Senate bids in Illinois and Ohio.  A woman faces a runoff in North Carolina next week.  Republicans didn't nominate a woman for governor in Texas.
• Two women governors, one from each party, aren't running again.  The woman appointee Republican in Arizona faces a primary.  Republicans have upcoming primaries with women for gubernatorial nominations in Georgia and Oklahoma, in addition to the runoff in South Carolina.  Democrats are counting on women contenders to win Republican open seats in Florida and Minnesota.  There is a primary in Minnesota.  Another irony, the woman state legislator endorsed by the party faces a former senator for the nomination. 
• California is guaranteed to have a woman senator because two face each other.  New Mexico is guaranteed to have a woman governor.  These are the only two Senate/governor races where women will face each other.  We've got a long way to go to reach parity.

Other 'vuvuzelas' that may be 'noising out' the reality of what's taking place on the field:

• Democrats are really unpopular.  Yes, but so are Republicans, whose congressional leaders consistently rank below Speaker Pelosi.  The Nets vs. the Clippers ... let's watch Brazil, and then look for David Beckham in street clothes.  The political equivalent of soccer could win something this cycle.   
• After the election, the party controlling governorships and state legislatures will win the redistricting battle.  Not true at all if the question is how many congressional districts will each state be allocated.  That's a formula from the census based on population distribution.  Florida and Texas will gain seats, no matter who wins the governorship; Pennsylvania and Ohio will lose seats based on current projections.  Potentially true if the state has a system whereby the legislature/governor are the deciders.  Partially true if the state doesn't have to present plans to the Justice Department for approval under the voting rights provisions.  Partially true if the courts don't get involved (such as Georgia, Texas, Indiana, North Carolina in recent years).  Partially true if the states don't have to undo a plan mid-decade.  Only true if mapmakers can figure out what erratic voters are at their core – defy anyone to assign a party identification to Northern Virginians who picked Obama, then Republican McDonnell for governor, then Democrats for special state legislative/local elections. 
• The new voters motivated by Obama campaign in 2008 won't show up at the polls.  Let's not be so sure.  We're told there is no evidence of massive voter registration drives taking place now.  Deadlines are months away.  And, the hordes who signed up last time don't have to do this again.  Even small numbers of newer voters could make a difference:  one mobilizing group in Colorado points out that eight percent of 2008 estimated 400,000 new voters would equal two percent of 2006 gubernatorial turnout. 
• The voters are anti-government.  We all know this is true.  But, over 70% in a CNN poll this week want the president to be tougher on BP over the oil spill.  Sometimes a strong president is seen as a bad thing. 
• We already know the issues.  The voters are worried about jobs and government spending, and they hate the health care law.  Sixty days ago nobody talked about an oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico.  Things not on the agenda have a way of flinging themselves on the table, shifting priorities and changing the dialogue.
  

June 8, 2010
Primaries:  Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow?
By Bernadette A. Budde

Last night had the town hopping with enthusiasm, enamored with super stars and the aura created by their presence. In victory, how sweet it is to be loved by you.   Everywhere, you've got a friend.  Election coverage began with the early announcement that Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) won her runoff.  That was enough for much of official Washington to declare the night over. We expected to see labor officials up on the roof, ready to jump in despair. The race that pitted the forces of business and labor, and in the simple parlance of pundit-world, business one.  That concluded,  event-driven Washingtonians turned its attention elsewhere.  It was as if half the town was at Nationals Park watching first-time pitcher Stephen Strasburg strike out 14 batters, including all nine of the Pirates' starting lineup.  James Carville even showed up on CNN late in the afternoon dressed in team colors wearing his W hat.  They cheered in World Series style, and only the spoil sports pointed out the Nats are still below 500.   I was at Verizon Center enjoying Carole King and James Taylor's Troubadour Reunion.  Lest you all laugh at an act this old and a trip down memory lane, laced with songs from the 60's/70's, remember:  the original duet performed at the Los Angeles club around the time Jerry Brown was secretary of state in California, 40ish years ago.  Last night he was nominated to run once more for governor.  He kind of looks like James Taylor.

Go to the BIPAC portal for updates on the states with contests last night, and read below for some of the major themes.  States deciding yesterday:  Arkansas runoff, California, Georgia special election, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia. 

You Make Me Feel Like A Natural Woman:  Big night for women candidates from coast to coast. 

Senate:  Besides Lincoln, three other women won significant Senate primary nominations.  Former CEO Carly Fiorina had a two-to-one margin in taking the Republican Senate nomination in California.  Her opponents conceded shortly after the polls closed.  Fiorina faces Senator Barbara Boxer (D), who made her first race for local office around the original Troubadour era.  Sharron Angle, former assemblywoman with tea party support, had 40% of the Republican primary vote in the Nevada Senate contest.  She beat earlier frontrunner/former state senator Sue Lowden in a field of a dozen contenders.  Senator Harry Reid (D) threatened to vaporize his opponent, but thus far the intra-party squabbles have inflicted the damage.  Fiorina and Angle are serious candidates.  Elsewhere last night, Roxanne Conlin, prominent trial lawyer and long-time Iowa Democratic figure, won her primary to face Senator Chuck Grassley (R), who was a veteran of the state legislature in the early 70's.  This is the Senate class that goes all the way back to 1992, the so-called year of the woman that brought Boxer to the Senate.  Whichever party elects more women to the Senate will have bragging rights.  The Republicans could nominate a woman in six states.  There are upcoming primaries in Colorado, Connecticut (held by Democrats) and New Hampshire (open Republican seat).  Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) who is on the ballot with a primary.  Democrats have five women incumbents.  In addition to Lincoln and Boxer, they are Senators Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), and Patty Murray (D-WA).  Besides Conlin, Democrats have selected Robin Carnahan in the open Republican seat in Missouri.  Her mother served a term in the Senate.  Elaine Marshall is leading in the North Carolina runoff on June 22.

Governor:  The most prominent of the gubernatorial contests on the June 8 primary ballot was California.  In tandem with Fiorina, former CEO Meg Whitman emphasized practical jobs experience in winning the Republican nomination.  She had almost two-thirds of the vote in early returns, silencing the doubters who wondered if spending millions of personal dollars would backfire.  The gossip pages ended up covering the race in South Carolina, and state legislator Nikki Haley placed a strong first in the Republican primary.  She described her campaign in the closing days as the equivalent of taking on the fraternity boys.  In Maine, Elizabeth Mitchell, former leader of the state house and senate, won the Democratic nomination.  Both parties nominated women in New Mexico. The Democrats are relying on women to win the open Republican seats in Florida and Minnesota.

I Feel the Earth Move Under My Feet:  More Trouble for Presumed Frontrunners

Such a paradox, this election cycle really isn't that hard on incumbents.  Two senators have lost, both veterans and both substantially older than their primary challengers.  Something besides incumbency was at play.  Two House members lost nomination bids in earlier primary evenings, both of whom were beaten for cause rather than simply being there.  June 8 didn't defeat any congressional incumbent although Representative Bob Inglis (R-SC 4) placed second and was forced into a runoff.  This isn't his first intra-party challenge.  Two California incumbents had trouble but survived.  Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) was defeated in his primary by former judge Brian Sandoval, but this was about Gibbons' personal behavior, not incumbency.  But, victory can be so far away when voters hold establishment insiders to extra scrutiny.  The Nevada Senate race toppled the presumed frontrunner, and Haley's gubernatorial upset in South Carolina humiliated bigger names who counted on sweeping the primary a few months ago.  In Virginia House races, the favored national choices may have been nominated against freshmen Representatives Glen Nye (D-2) and Tom Periello (D-5), but they were opposed by the tea party and claimed less than 50%.  In VA-11, popular local supervisor Pat Herrity lost big.  Nonincumbents rarely were nominated with a convincing margin.  The difficulty of the mainline candidates may continue in upcoming primaries.  Colorado Republicans have August 10 primaries for both Senate and governor, where the insurgents prevailed at nominating conventions.  Arizona primaries on August 24 endanger appointed Governor Janice Brewer (R) and Senator John McCain (R). 

Sometimes You Win Sometimes You Lose:  The Retreads and the Famous Names

Brown is not the only former governor earning a comeback opportunity.  Republicans in Iowa nominated four-term ex-Governor Terry Branstad to take on one-term Governor Chet Culver (D).  Two prominent South Carolina political families fell short of victory.  Paul Thurmond and Carroll Campbell, sons of a late senator and governor, were among nine Republican hopefuls in the SC 1 open seat.  Campbell was a weak third, and Thurmond limped into the June 22 runoff with 16%.  State representative Tim Scott, one of the few African-American elected Republicans, was first with 31%.  In NJ-3, former NFL player Jon Runyan won the Republican nomination in a very small turnout.  The biggest tumble from previous stature was in the CA-19 Republican open seat where former Representative Richard Pombo placed third in the Republican primary.  He doesn't live anywhere near the district.  Almond grower/state senator Jeff Denham won the nomination with 37% and is a heavy favorite in November. 

Shower the People You Love with Love:  Half Way through the Primaries

Next on the schedule:  June 22 runoffs:  Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina,

June 2, 2010
More Primaries:  More Bad News for the Over Confident Insiders
By Bernadette A. Budde 

Bottom line:  Another Tuesday, another morning after for pundits to explain why the early polls were wrong.  Another switcher was denied nomination by his new party, this time for the House.  A prominent Black Caucus moderate was trounced in his bid for higher office, losing to a white candidate who had black support.  Three sons of well known political figures failed to get close to winning primaries, two Republicans, the other a Democrat.  Republican House frontrunners recruited by national operatives to pick up Democratic seats were held to narrow margins by underfunded unknown tea party activists.  Welcome to June, and be prepared for more upheaval next Tuesday which is the super big week of the cycle.

Alabama – Runoffs July 13

Governor:  Representative Artur Davis (D-7) lost the Democratic gubernatorial  nomination to Ron Sparks, the state's agriculture commissioner.  Sparks had a slow start, but he won endorsement from a number of civil rights leaders along with gaming interests and the state teachers union.  Sparks, who is white, worked the traditional black support groups while Davis said he would make his case directly with the voters.  Sparks campaigned for a tax on gaming that would go toward education, and he criticized Davis for opposing the Obama health care bill.  Sparks had almost two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote.  Davis conceded within three hours of poll closing.  He promised to back Sparks in the general election, while telling supporters both candidates, sons of single mothers, exemplify the American dream.  Republicans were bunched together after midnight, much as they were throughout the race, with an ill-defined group of candidates.  The order as of this writing is Bradley Byrne, Robert Bentley and Tim James.  Byrne, a college chancellor, was in first place with 27%; Bentley, a physician/state legislator, was in second with 26%.  James, son of a former governor and 2002 candidate for this office, was fading in third place and is unlikely to nudge into second spot in the runoff.  Far out of the running was Roy Moore, once a state judge famous for his Ten Commandments display.

House:  Representative Parker Griffith (R-5), elected as a Democrat in 2008 and a recent convert, lost his primary to Mo Brooks, a Madison County commissioner and frequent candidate for office.  Local party figures resented Griffith's switch and refused to clear the field for him.  Griffith was rewarded by his caucus colleagues with a seat on Energy and Commerce.  Voters weren't impressed.  Brooks had 51%, Griffith 34%.  Democrats nominated Steve Raby, a former congressional chief of staff.  With almost 90% of the vote counted, Republicans will face a runoff between national party recruit Martha Roby and tea party activist Rick Barber in AL-2.  Roby serves on the Montgomery City Council, Barber is a retired Marine.  Roby had 46% and Barber had 31%, with her margins shrinking from earlier returns.  Freshman Representative Bobby Bright (D-2) captured this seat from Republicans in 2008.  Bright is the former mayor of Montgomery, elected to that post as an independent.  Bright voted against cap and trade, stimulus package, and the health care bill.  In AL-7 vacated by Davis, Democrats will have a runoff.  With about 90% counted, the top two contenders were Terri Sewell and Sheila Smoot.  Earl Hilliard Jr., whose father was the incumbent who lost to Davis in 2002, was a weak third.  Sewell is an attorney who was a classmate of President and Mrs. Obama.  Smoot is a Jefferson County commissioner and a former tv anchor. 

Mississippi – Runoffs June 22

House:  Another weakened national recruit, State Senator Alan Nunnellee avoided a runoff by taking 51% in a three-way Republican primary in MS-1.  Sarah Palin was a late endorser of the candidate who finished third, and local tea groups backed the second-place finisher who had 33%.  Nunnellee is chair of the state legislature's Appropriations Committee and an ally of Governor Haley Barbour (R). In normal years, this description would have cleared the field.  The seat is held by Representative Travis Childers (D-1) who won this formerly Republican seat in a special election, then went on to secure a full term in 2008.  Republican expectations for double-digit gains depend on districts such as this. 

New Mexico

Governor:  Two women will compete to replace Governor Bill Richardson (D).  Democrats selected Lt. Governor Diane Denish without a primary.  Republicans had five candidates, but Susana Martinez earned a relatively easy victory over a weak field.  She had over 50% and was declared the victor shortly after the polls closed.  Pete Domenici Jr., son of the revered longtime former senator, was in fourth place.  Martinez is the district attorney in Dona Ana County. 

House:  Former Representative Steve Pearce (R) finished off a minor challenger in the primary in his bid to reclaim the NM-2 seat he left to run for Senate in 2008.  Freshman Representative Harry Teague (D-2) had no primary.  Jon Barela became the Republican NM-1 nominee without a primary to challenge freshman Representative Martin Heinrich (D-1).  Republicans can't talk of gaining 39 seats without winning two in New Mexico.

May 26, 2010
Con(v)entions and Con(t)entions:  Lost Before They Started
By Bernadette A. Budde 

Series finale for some; some died happily ever after; some stayed in the light; some opted out before the end.  You'll never have to endure a 'Lost' comparison again, but three states held conventions over the weekend  along with one special election.  Thus we have one final parallel to explore.  No state's convention turned out the way Washington insiders predicted, which is another indication of a cycle which lives in at least two realities: one out there, and a sideways world made up of Washington operatives.  The headline, by the way, is courtesy of Bill Davis, who works with our state business partners.  He sent me an mail last week about upcoming 'contentions,' when he meant 'conventions'.  As things turned out, Bill was on to something.  For the supposed frontrunners, the weekend was filled with 'contentions' of an unexpected nature.

Colorado: 

Senate Democrats:  Appointed Senator Michael Bennet (D) 'lost' the convention endorsement to former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who earned 61% of the convention delegates and the top line on the primary ballot.  Bennet had adequate support to receive an automatic spot in the August 10 primary, but he said he will also qualify through the signature process.  Romanoff had fewer dollars and didn't need them in a contest dominated by party activists who were familiar with Romanoff's role in the Democratic takeover of the state legislature in this century.  Bennet ran TV ads proclaiming himself an outsider to  Washington.  Debatable strategy in a contest where local insider status is a good thing.

Senate Republicans:  National party favorite Jane Norton, the former Lt. Governor, didn't qualify for the primary ballot as a result of the convention.  To secure a spot in the primary, she has to go the petition route and gather enough signatures.  She had a foreshadowing of this when she came in second in March precinct caucuses to Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck.  A county known for tornados and agri-business, Weld didn't have the population base to sustain a statewide contest without Buck's ability to tap into tea party and other activists.  Norton's efforts to collect Washington supporters among the old-line operative community was a flawed tactic to get access to the primary ballot.  Buck had 77% of the convention delegates, aided by tea party and prominent national conservative voices.  Tom Wiens dropped his bid to get on the ballot via signatures for the Republican nomination shortly after the convention.  The assumption is his supporters lean toward Buck.  Polls matching Bennet and Norton, so presumptuous.

Other Colorado contests:  Democrats as expected nominated Denver Mayor/former businessman John Hickenlooper for governor to replace retiring Governor Bill Ritter (D).  Republicans had an upset at their convention when businessman Dan Maes, generating enthusiasm from delegates enamored with Buck, took first place over former Representative Scott McInnis, the choice of the party establishment.  Maes had 49% and McInnis had 48%.  State representative Cory Gardner won the Republican nomination to take on freshman Representative Betsy Markey (D-4).

Connecticut: 

Senate Democrats:  state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal was nominated by acclimation at the weekend convention, a rare good headline after days of responding to video footage of him describing himself as a Vietnam veteran.  He was in the military reserves stateside during that war.  The seat is held by retiring Senator Chris Dodd (D).

Senate Republicans:  This is another of the early 'contentions' where the national party designee fell short.  Former Representative Rob Simmons was in this race before Dodd announced he wouldn't run again.  Simmons vowed after the Saturday convention to continue through the primary, but he dropped out yesterday.  WWE cofounder/ex-ceo Linda McMahon tapped into the local party structure and intrigued voters with her message, if not her dollars.  She had 51% at the convention and would have enjoyed top line on the ballot.  Momentum is with her, and she showed her willingness to play rough when she acknowledged it was her team that leaked information about Blumenthal to The New York Times, leading to the story on Blumenthal's exaggerations.  Looking for a surprise ending to this cycle:  what if Connecticut elects a Republican to the Senate while Delaware and Indiana don't.  If the new/outsider vs. old/insider argument matters, why couldn't Linda win?

Other Connecticut contests:  Governor Jodi Rell (R) is not running again.  Republican convention delegates selected former U.S. Ambassador Tom Foley for the top line of the ballot, but two others received enough backing to qualify for the August 10 primary.  Lt. Governor Mike Fedele placed second, despite having Rell's endorsement.  Businessman Oz Griebel placed third.  Democrats have a primary between Stamford mayor Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont.  Malloy ran for governor in 2006 while Lamont was the Democratic nominee for the Senate the same year.  Malloy had over 1200 delegates, Lamont under 600.  State Representative Sam Caligiuri won the Republican nomination with 67% of the delegate votes.  He will run in the general election against Representative Chris Murphy (D-5).  Republicans can't claim success in 2010 without restoring an eastern seat such as this, taken from them in 2006.  When the cycle began, Foley and Caliguiri were running for the Senate.

Wisconsin:

Republicans:  Unlike Colorado and Connecticut, the Wisconsin convention has no authority to place and ban candidates from the September 14 primary ballot.  The so-called endorsement merely means that the party apparatus is available to the designated candidate for use in the primary.  Gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker, the Waukesha County executive, was unchallenged because former Representative Mark Neuman didn't seek the party's blessing for his primary bid.  Governor Jim Doyle (D) isn't running again.  In the Senate, recent entrant Dick Leinenkugel stepped aside at the start of the convention, throwing his support to Ron Johnson, a businessman from Oshkosh, who had 64% for endorsement on the second ballot.  Madison businessman Terrence Wall, who said he is still in the primary, placed second with 18%.  The seat is held by Senator Russ Feingold (D).

Hawaii Special Election:

Republicans won the open seat vacated by gubernatorial hopeful, Representative Neil Abercrombie (D-1).  This brings the Republican total in the House to 178 R, 1 R vacant, 255 D, 1 D vacant.  Republicans now need a net pickup of 39 seats to gain control.  Honolulu city councilmember Charles Djou (R) is the only candidate I interviewed this cycle who knew anything about 'Lost', because it has been filmed in Hawaii for the last six years.  He 'won' even though two Democrats combined to take almost 59% of the vote.  The winner-take-all, mail-in ballot election was a contest of wills between two Democrats who wouldn't defer to each other, and their supporters who refused to align with one another to stop Djou.  With the last primary in the country on September 18, Hawaii risks producing another contentious rift between the Democrats, allowing Djou to win again in November, even though conventional wisdom says he's only a temporary occupant of this seat.  Djou had 39%, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa had 30%, and former Representative  Ed Case had 27%. 

May 19, 2010
Lost, Lost-er, Lost-est:  The May 18 Primary Outcomes
By Bernadette A. Budde 

What a night!  In the penultimate episode of Lost, which just happens to be wrapping up its series after six seasons, the length of a Senate term, Jack looks chosen while Hurley is still talking to the apparently dead.  In the NBA lottery, my Wizards pulled the number one pick.  Before leaving the office last night, I was asked who was more likely to be in Washington in the fall:  John Wall or Arlen Specter?  We all knew the answer to that one – bet on the newcomer.   But, the oldster Celtics, whose Big Three have a combined age of over 100, beat the Magic again.  Some occupations reward experience.  Too much about basketball, you say.  Check out last night's Oregon primaries.  The Republican gubernatorial nominee is a former Portland Trailblazer.  Meanwhile, the quasi-professionals with great musicality made it to the finals of DWTS.  Only mystery here: who put Hannah Montana in a cage and then let Miley-as-Adam Lambert slip through the bars?  Confused about images and remakes, so are the pundits. 

Summary of election highlights from last night:

Lost:  Senator Arlen Specter (D-PA), who overlooked running as an Independent, offered himself to a disinterested Democratic party electorate, all too happy to give an unknown a chance.  Voters may be angry, but they are persuadable and willing to pay attention to what the candidates say.  That pesky Representative Joe Sestak (D-PA 7) couldn't be talked out of running, and he overcame opposition from all the party's big wigs, including organized labor.  Sestak won the Democratic nomination with 54%.  Former Representative Pat Toomey (R) won his party's nod with over 80%.  There were over 200,000 more votes cast in the Democratic primary, which of course was more interesting.  If there is a 'lost' runnerup category, I'm giving that award to organized labor, followed by the Pennsylvania state party leadership.  Labor backed Specter, as did the state's Democratic endorsing convention.

Lost-er:  Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), hoping to win ten seats to gain control of the Senate for his party, was unable to designate and then shepherd his choice to the Republican nomination in the Kentucky primary.  It wasn't even 8 p.m. eastern time when CNN called the Republican Senate primary for Rand Paul, physician, son of Ron, and long-time anti-tax activist.  Paul had 59%. Worse than pushing Secretary of State Trey Grayson into a slaughter (he had 35%), McConnell's party vote total in the Republican Senate primary  was over 150,000 less than those cast in the Democratic Senate primary.  Paul, however, had more than 100,000 votes more than either of the two Democrats as an individual total.  I'd been asking, snidely, on the recent regional tour, which party's Senate leader would look weaker headed toward Memorial Day, Republican or Democrat?  The national media suggests the Paul victory is due to the tea party movement, but Paul formed a tax limitation group in the state more than a decade ago.  Locals in candid moments have been saying for months that some of the Paul support was a rejection of McConnell's presumed meddling in state politics, and a relatively weak choice in Grayson.  In an era when we want to see our candidates, the grassroots efforts will always trump TV ads.  CNN has been swooning over Paul for months, calling him charming and a good interview, with an authenticity that makes him comfortable being interviewed in shorts.  About two hours after Paul was declared the Republican nominee, attorney general Jack Conway was declared the winner of the Democratic primary over lt. governor Dan Mongiardo by a slim margin of 44% to 43%.  By the way, the two Senate nominees are Duke grads who beat two University of Kentucky grads.  Presumably, U of K's John Wall will have a better night in the NBA draft. 

Lost-est:  Republicans for hyping and then not winning the PA-12 special election to replace the late Representative John Murtha (D).  The chattering class decided the white, older, blue collar Democratic cohort lives here, and they would vote for a Republican.  Instead, Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) won the remainder of the term with 53%, almost 70,000 votes, over businessman Tim Burns (R), who had 44%, with about 58,000 votes.  There will be a rematch of this in November as both won their respective primaries.  Runnerup for 'lost-est' are the anti-tax voices in Arizona.  Voters soundly approved a three-year one-cent increase in the state sales tax to resolve budget issues.  The state's business leadership through the Arizona Chamber of Commerce backed the proposal. 

The Biggest Loser:  Organized labor threw millions of dollars and abundant energy to knock off a moderate Democrat, and they failed. Those who counted out Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) got a surprise when her overwhelmingly awful poll numbers were overcome by a neighbor to neighbor campaign, complete with women in hats over the weekend.  She's not in the clear, having been forced into a June 8 runoff with lt. governor Bill Halter (D), but Lincoln fought back when accused of being a Washington insider.  Slow vote counts weren't complete, but shortly after midnight with over 80% tallied, she had 44% to Halter's 43%.  The third candidate ran as more conservative than either of the two leaders, which presumably gives Lincoln access to his votes.  Incomplete returns have Representative John Boozman (R-AR 3) over 50% for the Republican nomination.  Election officials reported over 125,000 absentee ballots were requested, indicating someone had a wonderful ground game. 

See the BIPAC database for information on other contests in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, Pennsylvania.

May 11, 2010
Election 2010 Aftermath:  A Changing of the Guard
By Bernadette A. Budde 

The chattering class is obsessed with guessing which party will have majority status when the elections are over.  I'm tuning out in order to ponder the impact of things that have already happened.  We process change so rapidly that we've forgotten what profound realignment has already taken place in the 111th Congress and the run-up to the 112th.  Here's what issue advocates had to factor into their policy strategies, and a look at what's ahead, regardless of which party emerges with numerical control.

Senate:

• Two committees changed chairs during this session, Agriculture and Health, Education, Labor, Pension (HELP) when Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) died.  Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA) left Agriculture for HELP.  Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) leaped ahead of others to assume the top spot on Agriculture.  In a normal cycle, this would help an incumbent avoid election trouble.  She's from an agri-business state, has a personal agri-business background, and has handled the derivatives portion of financial services reform.  None of this kept Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) from running against her in the May 18 primary. 
• If we believe the polls, the most mistrusted/unfavorable institutions in the country are banks/insurance companies.  Regulations affecting this economic sector are on the current congressional agenda, a major plank in the Obama Administration change platform.  Financial services reform is handled by the Senate Banking Committee, whose chair Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) is not running again.  Next in line is Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD), who was reelected in 2008 after recovering from brain surgery. 
• Climate change legislation is stalled in the Senate, where voting blocs line up by region more than by party.  Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is chair of Environment and Public Works.  She's on the ballot in a state where 'green' has been electoral gold, and she has nothing enacted to show for her efforts.  Republicans have moved this contest to a top tier, with polls showing incumbent weakness.  Defeating Boxer would be as thunderous as the ouster of the majority leader in nearby Nevada.
• There are 11 senators not running again, which means more than ten percent of the Senate will be new, without any incumbent being defeated.  Adding the class of 2010 to the large turnover class of 2006/2008, we're guaranteed to have at least a third of the Senate serving in its first term.  At least a third of the Senate will have been elected in the social-network era where citizens organize around issue coalitions rather than political parties.

 House:

• Both the Energy and Commerce as well as the Ways and Means Committees changed chairs in the 111th Congress, replacing veteran Representatives John Dingell (D-MI 16) and Charlie Rangel (D-NY 15).  Health care, climate change, tax reform ... these are the panels.
• Appropriations will have a new chair in the 112th now that Representative David Obey (D-WI 7) is retiring.  The number two Democrat on that panel passed away, Representative John Murtha (D-PA 12). 
• Representative Bart Gordon (D-TN 6) chairs the Science and Technology Committee and isn't running again. 
• Republicans are targeting three committee chairs for defeat.  They are Representatives Ike Skelton (D-MO 4), chair of Armed Services; John Spratt (D-SC 5), chair of Budget; Nick Rahall (D-WV 3), chair of Natural Resources.  It is hard to get to a gain of 40 seats without toppling these individuals. 
• As of early May, there are 37 House members not running again, but they are disproportionately from the three major committees.  Half of them serve on Appropriations, Energy and Commerce, or Ways and Means. 

Did I Stay Too Long at the Fair? 

Last Saturday, Utah Republican Convention attendees denied three-term Senator Bob Bennett another term. Rejected on the second ballot, Bennett placed third and fell short of the required support to earn a spot in the primary.  He is out, becoming the first incumbent defeated in the 2010 election cycle. 

Months ago, a senior senator asked me to breakfast to discuss what sounded like a complicated 2010 election.  My advice: to avoid defeat, don't run; to avoid losing the primary, run as an independent.  Advice ignored.  The experienced candidate told me things would be fine if only the voters realized how much more another term could achieve. 

Nothing we've seen in conflicting surveys tells us the voters want experience.  This could be the worst cycle of all to tout one's insider status.  The fix-it voters of the last two cycles already selected classes of 2006 and 2008 that were huge and relatively atypical (see Franken, comic, Minnesota).  With 11 senators already stepping aside, the 112th Senate is guaranteed to have at least a dozen new faces, including Utah. Should Republicans win control, they would have at least 17 new faces: seven replacements for GOP open seats, five replacements for Democratic open seats, and five challengers who defeated Democratic incumbents.  The 17 Republicans in the class of 2010 would be one third of a majority caucus of 51.

We can expect more outcomes similar to Utah, probably this month when Pennsylvania and Arkansas voters judge their Democratic senators in primaries.